Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 62.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 16.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Burnley |
62.67% ( 0.35) | 20.66% ( 0.09) | 16.66% ( -0.44) |
Both teams to score 53.11% ( -1.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.22% ( -1.19) | 42.77% ( 1.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.82% ( -1.19) | 65.18% ( 1.19) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.94% ( -0.27) | 13.05% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.36% ( -0.55) | 39.63% ( 0.54) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.08% ( -1.24) | 38.92% ( 1.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.35% ( -1.19) | 75.65% ( 1.19) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Burnley |
2-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 10.34% ( 0.43) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.21% Total : 62.67% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.66% | 0-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.08% Total : 16.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 28 | 60 | 83 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 87 | 33 | 54 | 82 |
3 | Liverpool | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Aston Villa | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 69 | 58 | 11 | 60 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 78 | 56 | 22 | 56 |
7 | Chelsea | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 70 | -14 | 49 |
10 | Bournemouth | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 48 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 47 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 46 |
13 | Fulham | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 44 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
15 | Everton | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 37 |
16 | Brentford | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 52 | 60 | -8 | 36 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 36 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 49 | 78 | -29 | 26 |
19 | Burnley | 36 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 36 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 100 | -65 | 16 |
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