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Bundesliga | Gameweek 33
May 11, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
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Mainz
3 - 0
Dortmund

Barreiro (12'), Jae-sung (19', 23')
Hanche-Olsen (45+1'), Barreiro (56')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Reus (41'), Schlotterbeck (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Heidenheim 1-1 Mainz
Sunday, May 5 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: PSG 0-1 Dortmund
Tuesday, May 7 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

 Dortmund have won each of their last six away games against Mainz, and even with a number of changes, we still think that the Champions League finalists will do enough to claim all three points in Saturday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.24%. A win for Borussia Dortmund has a probability of 28.34% and a draw has a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win is 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.92%).

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
49.24% (0.078000000000003 0.08) 22.41% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 28.34% (-0.146 -0.15)
Both teams to score 63.62% (-0.353 -0.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.49% (-0.416 -0.42)36.5% (0.411 0.41)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.35% (-0.453 -0.45)58.65% (0.45 0.45)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.82% (-0.127 -0.13)15.17% (0.121 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.21% (-0.236 -0.24)43.79% (0.231 0.23)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.01% (-0.307 -0.31)24.99% (0.302 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.36% (-0.425 -0.43)59.64% (0.41999999999999 0.42)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 49.24%
    Borussia Dortmund 28.34%
    Draw 22.41%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.35% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 7.15% (0.113 0.11)
2-0 @ 6.74% (0.078 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.88% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.24% (0.031 0.03)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.041 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.77% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.92% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.04% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 4.09%
Total : 49.24%
1-1 @ 9.92% (0.071999999999999 0.07)
2-2 @ 6.48% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.79% (0.076 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.88% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 22.41%
1-2 @ 6.88% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.26% (0.061 0.06)
0-2 @ 3.65% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.18% (-0.033 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.69% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.1% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.04% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 28.34%

How you voted: Mainz vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
15.8%
Draw
11.9%
Borussia Dortmund
72.3%
101
Head to Head
Dec 19, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 16
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Brandt (29')
Van den Berg (43')
Bell (39'), Burkardt (85'), Krauss (90'), Barkok (90+2')
> Preview
May 27, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 34
Dortmund
2-2
Mainz
Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')
> Preview
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Jae-sung (2')
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
> Preview
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
> Preview
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen32266082235984
2Stuttgart33224774393570
3Bayern MunichBayern32223790414969
4RB Leipzig33197775373864
5Borussia DortmundDortmund33179764432160
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt33111394948146
7Freiburg33119134456-1242
8Hoffenheim32117145664-840
9Heidenheim33912124654-839
10Augsburg33109144958-939
11Werder Bremen33109144453-939
12Wolfsburg32107154051-1137
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach33713135663-734
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum32712134165-2433
15Mainz 05Mainz33614133650-1432
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin3386193157-2630
17FC Koln33512162756-2927
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3238213076-4617
> Bundesliga Full Table


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