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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 59.98%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.28%) and 0-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 2-1 (5.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
19.86% ( -4.47) | 20.16% ( -2.06) | 59.98% ( 6.53) |
Both teams to score 61.31% ( 0.97) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.03% ( 4.15) | 34.97% ( -4.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.04% ( 4.49) | 56.96% ( -4.48) |
Hoffenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.2% ( -1.53) | 30.79% ( 1.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.93% ( -1.85) | 67.07% ( 1.85) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.59% ( 3.29) | 11.4% ( -3.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.83% ( 6.71) | 36.17% ( -6.71) |
Score Analysis |
Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 5.29% ( -0.94) 1-0 @ 4.14% ( -1.15) 2-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.81) 3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.47) 3-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.37) Other @ 2.71% Total : 19.86% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( -1.15) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.79) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.16% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 8.28% ( 0.37) 0-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.62) 1-3 @ 7.06% ( 0.85) 0-3 @ 5.99% ( 0.94) 2-3 @ 4.16% ( 0.34) 1-4 @ 3.83% ( 0.85) 0-4 @ 3.25% ( 0.83) 2-4 @ 2.26% ( 0.43) 1-5 @ 1.66% ( 0.52) 0-5 @ 1.41% ( 0.48) 2-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.28) Other @ 3.74% Total : 59.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 32 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 69 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 63 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 41 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 40 |
9 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 33 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 33 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 29 |
17 | FC Koln | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 24 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 17 |
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