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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
Result | ||
Stuttgart | Draw | Mainz 05 |
56.4% ( -0.41) | 22.14% ( 0.12) | 21.45% ( 0.29) |
Both teams to score 56.78% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.91% ( -0.18) | 42.08% ( 0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.51% ( -0.18) | 64.49% ( 0.19) |
Stuttgart Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.24% ( -0.19) | 14.76% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57% ( -0.37) | 42.99% ( 0.38) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.61% ( 0.17) | 33.39% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.98% ( 0.18) | 70.01% ( -0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Stuttgart | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.31% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.9% Total : 56.4% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.14% | 1-2 @ 5.67% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.27% Total : 21.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 32 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 69 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 63 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 41 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 40 |
9 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 33 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 33 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 29 |
17 | FC Koln | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 24 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 17 |
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