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Le Havre
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Lille
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Strasbourg
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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12
Nov 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Marseille

Lens
1 - 0
Marseille

Gradit (90')
Gradit (44'), Abdul Samed (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Lodi (37'), Oliveira (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSV 1-0 Lens
Wednesday, November 8 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: AEK Athens 0-2 Marseille
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Lens 1-1 Marseille

Both sides have shown pragmatic approaches to get results in recent weeks, as defensive solidity has been the backbone of Haise's success at Lens. It will be a tough place to come to end Marseille's winless away run, and that is set to continue, but the spoils may well be shared here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lens in this match.

Result
LensDrawMarseille
46.91% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04) 25.21% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1) 27.88% (0.134 0.13)
Both teams to score 53.61% (0.41 0.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.47% (0.489 0.49)49.53% (-0.489 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.44% (0.437 0.44)71.56% (-0.438 -0.44)
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.87% (0.185 0.19)21.13% (-0.185 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.02% (0.287 0.29)53.98% (-0.286 -0.29)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.98% (0.36 0.36)32.02% (-0.36 -0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.52% (0.407 0.41)68.48% (-0.40599999999999 -0.41)
Score Analysis
    Lens 46.91%
    Marseille 27.88%
    Draw 25.2%
LensDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 10.51% (-0.15 -0.15)
2-1 @ 9.31% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.17% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.82% (0.033 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.24% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.75% (0.046 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.87% (0.023 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.65% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 46.91%
1-1 @ 11.97% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 6.77% (-0.136 -0.14)
2-2 @ 5.3% (0.059 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.2%
0-1 @ 7.71% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-2 @ 6.82% (0.037 0.04)
0-2 @ 4.39%
1-3 @ 2.59% (0.039 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.01% (0.041 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.67% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 27.88%

How you voted: Lens vs Marseille

Lens
51.4%
Draw
31.4%
Marseille
17.1%
35
Head to Head
May 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 34
Lens
2-1
Marseille
Fofana (42'), Openda (60')
Payet (88')
Oct 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 12
Marseille
0-1
Lens
Costa (78')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Lens
0-2
Marseille

Danso (20'), Medina (32'), Sotoca (49')
Payet (34' pen.), Bakambu (77')
Peres (71'), Lirola (86')
Sep 26, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Marseille
2-3
Lens
Payet (33', 45+2' pen.)
Gueye (6'), Guendouzi (7')
Sotoca (9' pen.), Frankowski (27'), Said (71')
Said (90+2')
Feb 3, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 23
Lens
2-2
Marseille
Sotoca (46'), Medina (61')
Fofana (43'), Doucoure (48'), Medina (63'), Jean (90+2')
Thauvin (37'), Milik (45+2')
Lirola (60'), Gonzalez (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG322010277324570
2MonacoMonaco33197764422264
3Lille331610750321858
4Brest331610750341658
5Nice32159837251254
6Lens33148114335850
7Lyon33155134754-750
8Marseille321211950391147
9Rennes331210115244846
10Toulouse331110124243-143
11Reims32118133946-741
12Montpellier HSCMontpellier331011124146-540
13StrasbourgStrasbourg33109143748-1139
14NantesNantes3396183051-2133
15Le HavreLe Havre33711153343-1032
16Metz3385203556-2129
17Lorient3368193866-2826
RClermont33510182655-2925


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