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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 72.84%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 11.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.99%) and 3-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.75%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 1-2 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | VfL Bochum |
72.84% ( 0.61) | 15.43% ( -0.04) | 11.73% ( -0.57) |
Both teams to score 59.12% ( -1.92) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.27% ( -1.44) | 28.73% ( 1.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.35% ( -1.79) | 49.65% ( 1.78) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.16% ( -0.22) | 6.84% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.81% ( -0.59) | 25.19% ( 0.59) |
VfL Bochum Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.46% ( -1.9) | 36.54% ( 1.9) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.67% ( -1.97) | 73.33% ( 1.96) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | VfL Bochum |
2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.54) 3-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.39) 1-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.48) 4-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.23) 5-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.08) 5-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.19) 5-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.12) 6-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.05) 6-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.55% Total : 72.84% | 1-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.26% Total : 15.43% | 1-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.88% Total : 11.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 32 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 69 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 63 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 41 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 40 |
9 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 33 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 33 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 29 |
17 | FC Koln | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 24 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 17 |
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