We said: Philippines 0-1 Vietnam
While Vietnam's recent results may appear alarming at first glance, the calibre of opposition must be taken into account, and the Golden Star Warriors boast a touch more pedigree at this level than their hosts.
The Philippines ought to give their visitors a good run for their money, but as was the case in December 2022, we expect Vietnam to nick a goal and shut up shop to get their qualification campaign off to a flyer.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philippines win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Vietnam had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philippines win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.81%), while for a Vietnam win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Vietnam would win this match.