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Serie A | Gameweek 28
Mar 10, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Roma logo

Fiorentina
2 - 2
Roma

Ranieri (18'), Mandragora (69')
Bonaventura (57'), Milenkovic (64')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Aouar (58'), Llorente (90+5')
Mancini (6'), Paredes (37'), Huijsen (45'), N'Dicka (68'), Baldanzi (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: M. Haifa 3-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Roma 4-0 Brighton
Thursday, March 7 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Fiorentina 1-1 Roma

A repeat of the result in December's reverse fixture could be on the cards, as Fiorentina are far tougher to beat on home turf and Roma do not always produce their best outside the capital. The Giallorossi's rapid progress may therefore hit a minor bump in the road. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.46%. A win for Roma had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
FiorentinaDrawRoma
45.46% (0.246 0.25) 26.07% (0.049000000000003 0.05) 28.46% (-0.295 -0.3)
Both teams to score 51.32% (-0.342 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.29% (-0.353 -0.35)52.7% (0.353 0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.65% (-0.305 -0.31)74.34% (0.303 0.3)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.87% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)23.12% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.01% (-0.053999999999995 -0.05)56.98% (0.053000000000004 0.05)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.76% (-0.41 -0.41)33.23% (0.411 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.15% (-0.456 -0.46)69.84% (0.455 0.45)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 45.46%
    Roma 28.46%
    Draw 26.07%
FiorentinaDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.25% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 9.08% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.24% (0.097000000000001 0.1)
3-1 @ 4.43% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-0 @ 4.02% (0.044 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.62% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.47% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 45.46%
1-1 @ 12.39% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.68% (0.106 0.11)
2-2 @ 5% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.07%
0-1 @ 8.47% (0.023 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.83% (-0.065 -0.06)
0-2 @ 4.66% (-0.039 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.51% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.71% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 28.46%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs Roma

Fiorentina
20.4%
Draw
22.9%
Roma
56.7%
157
Head to Head
Dec 10, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Roma
1-1
Fiorentina
Lukaku (5')
Cristante (37'), Zalewski (41'), Paredes (80'), Llorente (90+6')
Zalewski (64'), Lukaku (87')
Martinez (66')
Ikone (64'), Biraghi (75'), Duncan (86')
Milenkovic (90+7')
May 27, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 37
Fiorentina
2-1
Roma
Jovic (85'), Ikone (88')
Saponara (25'), Martinez (42'), Venuti (50'), Jovic (64'), Julio (77')
El Shaarawy (11')
Missori (32'), Solbakken (58'), Svilar (75'), Mourinho (84')
Jan 15, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 18
Roma
2-0
Fiorentina
Dybala (40', 82')
May 9, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 36
Fiorentina
2-0
Roma
Gonzalez (5' pen.), Bonaventura (11')
Amrabat (19'), Bonaventura (28'), Duncan (49')

Mancini (24')
Aug 22, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 1
Roma
3-1
Fiorentina
Mkhitaryan (26'), Veretout (64', 79')
Pellegrini (13'), Zaniolo (44')
Zaniolo (52')
Milenkovic (60')
Bonaventura (45+3'), Pulgar (53')
Dragowski (17')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CInter Milan35285281196289
2AC Milan35218667422571
3Juventus351812548272166
4Bologna351713549272264
5Atalanta BCAtalanta341861063382560
6Roma35179962422060
7Lazio35175134537856
8Napoli351312105344951
9Fiorentina341481251391250
10Torino351114103131047
11Monza351112123846-845
12Genoa351013124143-243
13Lecce35813143250-1837
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona35810173346-1334
15CagliariCagliari35712163760-2333
16FrosinoneFrosinone35711174363-2032
17Empoli3588192650-2432
18Udinese35418133352-1930
19SassuoloSassuolo3578204170-2929
RSalernitana3529242775-4815


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