Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 72.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Arouca |
72.27% | 16.34% | 11.39% |
Both teams to score 53.94% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.5% | 34.49% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.57% | 56.43% |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.67% | 8.33% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.97% | 29.03% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.84% | 41.16% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.3% | 77.7% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Arouca |
2-0 @ 10.59% 2-1 @ 9.4% 3-0 @ 8.78% 1-0 @ 8.52% 3-1 @ 7.79% 4-0 @ 5.45% 4-1 @ 4.84% 3-2 @ 3.46% 5-0 @ 2.71% 5-1 @ 2.41% 4-2 @ 2.15% 6-0 @ 1.12% 5-2 @ 1.07% 6-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.98% Total : 72.27% | 1-1 @ 7.56% 2-2 @ 4.17% 0-0 @ 3.43% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.15% Total : 16.34% | 1-2 @ 3.36% 0-1 @ 3.04% 0-2 @ 1.35% 2-3 @ 1.24% 1-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.41% Total : 11.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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