Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 83.81%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 4.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.29%) and 1-0 (12.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (2.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Osasuna |
83.81% ( 0.7) | 12.06% ( -0.4) | 4.13% ( -0.3) |
Both teams to score 31.37% ( -0.91) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.36% ( 0.28) | 42.64% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.96% ( 0.28) | 65.04% ( -0.28) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.35% ( 0.22) | 7.65% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
72.69% ( 0.57) | 27.31% ( -0.57) |
Osasuna Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
33.97% ( -1.07) | 66.03% ( 1.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
6.57% ( -0.45) | 93.43% ( 0.45) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Osasuna |
2-0 @ 16.68% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 14.29% ( 0.3) 1-0 @ 12.98% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 6.93% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 5.94% ( -0.1) 5-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.11) 5-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.07) Other @ 4.04% Total : 83.79% | 1-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.18% Total : 12.06% | 0-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.92% Total : 4.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |