Matchday 20 of the 2021-22 Eredivisie season commences with a meeting between Vitesse and Groningen at the GelreDome on Saturday.
The sides head into the game in contrasting forms, with Vitesse looking to make it three league wins on the bounce, while Groningen set out to avoid a third consecutive defeat across all competitions.
Match preview
Vitesse secured safe passage into the last eight of the KNVB-Beker courtesy of a 2-0 victory over lower league opposition DVS '33 Ermelo on Tuesday.
Goals in either half from Daan Huisman and Lois Openda secured a routine victory for Thomas Letsch's men in Arnhem.
This came off the back of consecutive wins against PEC Zwolle and more recently Feyenoord, which have seen Vitas move to within three points of third place in the Eredivisie table.
Next up is the challenge of an opposing side who have failed to come out on top in any of the last three meetings between the sides and also suffered a 1-0 loss in September's reverse fixture.
However, Saturday's hosts have only picked up 14 of a possible 27 points on home turf on home turf this term, which has been arguably their biggest Achilles' heel so far.
Groningen have been dumped out of the Dutch Cup following a 2-1 defeat to NEC Nijmegen at the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion on Wednesday.
Danny Buijs's men found themselves behind 10 minutes into the contest thanks to Calvin Verdonk's opener but drew level on the cusp of half time through Michael de Leeuw, before Mikkel Duelund scored within three minutes of the second period to decide the contest.
Prior to that, the Pride of the North were beaten for the third league game running in a 1-0 defeat to PSV Eindhoven as a result of which their cushion above the drop zone has now dropped to five points.
Currently with the third-worst defensive record on the road, Saturday's visitors will be wary of being carved open at will away from home once again.
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Team News
Goalkeeper Daan Reiziger continues to nurse a wrist injury and will play no part for Vitesse in this one.
Twenty-one-year-old Lois Openda is on a three-game scoring run and is definitely one to keep an eye on.
Radinio Balker remains without an appearance this season due to a knee injury which he picked up in May prior to his summer switch to Groningen.
Cyril Ngonge was replaced by Paulos Abraham in the starting XI for the cup tie last time out, but the former should be recalled to the starting lineup this weekend.
Vitesse possible starting lineup:
Houwen; Rasmussen, Bazoer, Doekhi; Wittek, Tronstad, Domgjoni, Dasa; Buitink, Openda, Grbic
Groningen possible starting lineup:
Leeuwenburgh; Meijer, Van Hintum, Te Wierik, Dankerlui; Duarte, Van Kaam, De Leeuw; Ngonge, Suslov, Larsen
We say: Vitesse 2-0 Groningen
Vitesse are in the ascendancy at the moment and will certainly take some stopping, and while we expect Groningen to push them all the way, we are backing a victory for the home team in this one, albeit by only a narrow margin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 67.87%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 13.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Groningen win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
