Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.7%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 13.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.34%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (4.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
13.66% ( 0.04) | 19.64% ( 0.02) | 66.7% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 49.16% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.72% ( -0.02) | 44.27% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.35% ( -0.02) | 66.65% ( 0.02) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.09% ( 0.05) | 43.91% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.96% ( 0.04) | 80.04% ( -0.04) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.64% ( -0.03) | 12.36% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.8% ( -0.05) | 38.2% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 4.47% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 3.84% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.1% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 1.36% Total : 13.66% | 1-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.43% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.86% Total : 19.64% | 0-2 @ 11.86% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 11.34% 1-2 @ 9.76% ( 0) 0-3 @ 8.27% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 6.8% ( -0) 0-4 @ 4.32% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.56% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.49% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.46% Other @ 3.22% Total : 66.69% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |