Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (11.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
Result | ||
Santa Clara | Draw | Famalicao |
36.48% ( 0.21) | 28.97% ( -0.08) | 34.56% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 44.94% ( 0.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.27% ( 0.28) | 61.73% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.46% ( 0.21) | 81.54% ( -0.2) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.67% ( 0.28) | 32.33% ( -0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.17% ( 0.31) | 68.83% ( -0.31) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.41% ( 0.06) | 33.59% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.76% ( 0.07) | 70.24% ( -0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Santa Clara | Draw | Famalicao |
1-0 @ 12.26% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.84% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.74% Total : 36.48% | 1-1 @ 13.37% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.85% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 4.12% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.95% | 0-1 @ 11.84% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.55% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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