Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 36.86%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (11.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Santa Clara |
34.97% ( -0.02) | 28.17% ( 0) | 36.86% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 47.26% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.1% ( -0.02) | 58.89% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.61% ( -0.01) | 79.39% ( 0.01) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.15% ( -0.02) | 31.85% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.71% ( -0.02) | 68.28% ( 0.02) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.35% | 30.65% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.1% ( 0) | 66.89% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Santa Clara |
1-0 @ 11.16% 2-1 @ 7.56% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.39% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.88% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.44% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0) Other @ 2.83% Total : 34.96% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0) Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.16% | 0-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.83% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.08% 0-3 @ 2.69% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.24% Total : 36.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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