Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Arouca |
30.32% ( -0.71) | 27.38% ( 0.02) | 42.3% ( 0.7) |
Both teams to score 48.41% ( -0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.08% ( -0.29) | 56.91% ( 0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.17% ( -0.24) | 77.83% ( 0.23) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.94% ( -0.67) | 34.05% ( 0.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.26% ( -0.73) | 70.74% ( 0.73) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.41% ( 0.23) | 26.58% ( -0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.19% ( 0.31) | 61.8% ( -0.31) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.32% Total : 30.32% | 1-1 @ 12.92% 0-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.38% | 0-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 8.56% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 7.95% ( 0.19) 1-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.06% Total : 42.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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