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FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer | Gameweek 39
Oct 17, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Nippert Stadium
Orlando City

Cincinnati
0 - 1
Orlando City


Bailey (80'), Cameron (86')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Urso (13')
Carlos (66'), Perea (74')

Preview: FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between FC Cincinnati and Orlando City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Orlando City recently ended a run of four straight defeats, and are favourites to register back-to-back wins for the first time since June when they travel to face the Eastern Conference's bottom side, FC Cincinnati, on Sunday.

The home team have only won once in their last 19 games, and new manager Tyrone Marshall has seemingly not had the positive impact, in terms of results, he would have wished for since arriving at the club at the end of September.


Match preview

FC Cincinnati midfielder Luciano Acosta celebrates with teammates scoring a goal on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Cincinnati's last two games have come against two of the Eastern Conference's top three teams, and the 14th-placed side only missed out on a draw by one goal in each of those outings.

Last time out, Marshall's team dominated possession of the ball against Philadelphia Union, but the hosts were not as efficient in front of goal and only managed to net one of their six shots on target, while Union scored twice earlier in the game.

Hope of avoiding a bottom-placed finish is fading away for Cincinnati, who are now five points behind Toronto in 13th with six games to play, and collecting any points on Sunday will be a tough task for the home side, given Orlando's better league position.

Cincinnati have only won once at the TQL Stadium this season, but they have conceded 22 more goals away from home, suggesting that Orlando are not going to run riot in Ohio this weekend.

Orlando City SC midfielder Nani (17) reacts after scoring a goal against FC Cincinnati in the second half at TQL Stadium on August 7, 2021© Reuters

Orlando have far from clinched a playoff spot with six games still to play as they are only three points ahead of Atlanta United in eighth, but victory against fellow top-seven rival DC United was a massive boost for the squad.

Oscar Pareja's side went behind earlier on in that game against DC United; they quickly equalised through centre-back Robin Jansson but it was a long wait for the home side to find a winner at the Exploria Stadium.

Striker Daryl Dike was the hero on that day, scoring a 97th-minute winner to ensure Orlando leapfrogged DC United in the Eastern Conference, and that was the third consecutive match in which the 21-year-old has found the back of the net.

Orlando are favourites for Sunday's encounter against Cincinnati, and there is pressure on the team to win, considering dropping points this weekend will allow Atlanta the opportunity to draw level on points with Pareja's side.

The Lions have not actually won away from home in the MLS since the end of June, failing to collect three points in nine attempts away from Florida, but they are expected to end that run on Sunday.

Cincinnati will be looking to copy the performance and result of the last time these two teams met in August, when Orlando could only manage a 1-1 draw at the TQL Stadium, but Pareja's side did secure a 3-0 win the first time they faced Cincinnati this season.

FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Orlando City Major League Soccer form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W



Team News

Orlando City SC head coach Oscar Pareja walks off the field at the end of the game against FC Cincinnati at TQL Stadium on August 7, 2021© Reuters

Maikel van der Werff has not featured for Cincinnati this season, and he will continue to be absent on Sunday as he suffers from a hernia.

Joseph-Claude Gyau is also expected to remain sidelined this weekend, having not played since the beginning of August when he picked up a heel injury, but the 29-year-old could return to action later this month.

Both Yuya Kubo and Gustavo Vallecilla were forced off after just 31 minutes last time out, but they are not certain to miss this weekend's clash having had a week to recover from their injuries.

Orlando's Alexandre Pato and Oriol Rosell are the only absentees for the visitors on Sunday, as Joseph Dezart was fit enough to be named as a substitute last time out after exiting the field due to injury against Philadelphia Union in September.

Dike is sure to be one of the biggest attacking threats for Orlando, and he will be keen to extend his scoring run as he attempts to catch Orlando's top goalscorer Nani by the end of this season.

FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Castillo, Blackett, Vallecilla, Bailey; Stanko, Medunjanin; Barreal, Acosta, Kubo; Silva

Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Moutinho, Jansson, Carlos, Ruan; Mendez, Urso; Nani, Pereira, Michel; Dike


SM words green background

We say: FC Cincinnati 0-1 Orlando City

Despite Orlando's superior league position and Cincinnati's poor form, it is not expected to be a straightforward task for the visitors, given their not so great away record.

However, with a playoff place not yet secured, Pareja will be keen for his side to ensure their finish in the top seven as soon as possible and three points on Sunday is vital for that to happen.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Orlando City in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Cincinnati vs Orlando City

FC Cincinnati
17.4%
Draw
34.8%
Orlando City
47.8%
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami1383235201527
2FC CincinnatiCincinnati127321510524
3New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls125522018220
4Toronto126151617-119
5DC United124531919017
6New York City FCNY City125251414017
7Charlotte FCCharlotte FC125251313017
8Columbus Crew113621311215
9Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia113532119214
10Atlanta UnitedAtlanta113351614212
11Orlando City113351420-612
12CF MontrealMontreal113351523-812
13Nashville SCNashville112541419-511
14Chicago Fire122461222-1010
15New England RevolutionNew England11218922-137

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Salt LakeSalt Lake126422011922
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd106221711620
3Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy125522319420
4Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver115331813518
5Los Angeles FCLos Angeles125342219318
6Colorado RapidsColorado125342018218
7Houston DynamoHouston115241111017
8St Louis City113711815316
9Austin FCAustin124441515016
10Seattle SoundersSeattle123451514113
11Sporting Kansas CityKansas122551921-211
12Dallas113261216-411
13Portland TimbersPortland122462125-410
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes123182028-810


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