Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Dallas win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | Dallas |
44.89% ( -0.4) | 25.89% ( 0.07) | 29.23% ( 0.33) |
Both teams to score 52.37% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.44% ( -0.12) | 51.56% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.65% ( -0.1) | 73.36% ( 0.1) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.1% ( -0.24) | 22.9% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.34% ( -0.35) | 56.66% ( 0.35) |
Dallas Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.93% ( 0.19) | 32.07% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.46% ( 0.21) | 68.54% ( -0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | Dallas |
1-0 @ 10.82% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 44.88% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.88% | 0-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.71% Total : 29.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 27 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 24 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
4 | Toronto | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
5 | DC United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 17 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
8 | Columbus Crew | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 14 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Orlando City | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 12 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 20 |
4 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 18 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
8 | St Louis City | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 16 |
9 | Austin FCAustin | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
11 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 11 |
12 | Dallas | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
13 | Portland TimbersPortland | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 10 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |