Sheffield United and Middlesbrough square off at Bramall Lane on Tuesday night with just one point separating the two clubs in the Championship standings.
Ahead of a game which will see Chris Wilder return to his former club for the first time since he was sacked last year, Boro hold a slender advantage, occupying the final playoff spot.
Match preview
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With this fixture having initially been postponed at the turn of the year, Wilder finally gets to renew acquaintances with his ex-employers on Tuesday with the stakes having risen considerably in recent weeks.
Wilder has had the desired effect at the Riverside Stadium, collecting 33 points from his 17 Championship fixtures, but it has only been enough to establish a one-point lead in the playoff race.
Although inconsistency has recently become a factor, Boro have enjoyed an excellent seven days, following an FA Cup win over Tottenham Hotspur with a hard-fought 2-1 success against promotion rivals Luton Town at the weekend.
Duncan Watmore's sixth Championship goal of the campaign ultimately proved key and although just four points separate Boro to 11th-placed Preston North End, they will instead be looking ahead as they bid to move into fourth position by taking advantage of a game in hand.
However, their away form must improve over the next two months with Boro having won just four of their 16 matches on their travels, none of which have come in 2022.
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As far as Sheffield United are concerned, boss Paul Heckingbottom may perceive this to be a must-win contest given their current lack of momentum.
Although the Blades have only lost once in 11 outings, just two wins in six matches have left the club outside of the top six, a defeat away from potentially dropping down to 10th spot.
Heckingbottom will likely be taking a more positive approach to matters, but conceding a last-gasp equaliser to Nottingham Forest on Friday night felt like a considerable blow.
While Billy Sharp yet again got on the scoresheet with his 13th strike of the season, Sheffield United are becoming too reliant on the veteran and playmaker Morgan Gibbs-White.
The Yorkshire outfit are currently on a seven-match unbeaten streak at Bramall Lane, their last defeat on familiar territory coming all the way back on October 30.
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Team News
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Heckingbottom must decide whether to hand a second start to Femi Seriki, who made his first Championship start last week in the absence of George Baldock.
With Baldock expected to remain sidelined with a knee issue, Seriki will hope to keep his spot, but Ben Osborn or Alan Norrington-Davies may switch from the left flank.
Heckingbottom will also give consideration to starting either Oliver McBurnie or Daniel Jebbison alongside Sharp.
After both started among the replacements against Luton, Watmore and Andraz Sporar could return to the Middlesbrough XI.
Barring any fitness issues, they may prove to be the only alterations made by Wilder, who prefers a settled side over rotation.
Sheffield United possible starting lineup:
Foderingham; Davies, Egan, Robinson; Seriki, Norwood, Berge, Osborn; Gibbs-White; McBurnie, Sharp
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Lumley; Djiksteel, Fry, McNair; Jones, Crooks, Howson, Tavernier, Taylor; Watmore, Sporar
We say: Sheffield United 1-1 Middlesbrough
All things considered, this can only be a full-throttle fixture with the added ingredient of Wilder thrown into the mix. That could lead to a competitive fixture ultimately ending in a share of the spoils, a result that both clubs would probably gratefully accept.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheffield United win with a probability of 47%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 27.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheffield United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sheffield United would win this match.
