Middlesbrough and West Bromwich Albion will meet at the Riverside Stadium on Tuesday night with just three points separating the two clubs in the Championship standings.
While Boro and the Baggies feature in the race for the playoffs, both sides suffered disappointing defeats away from home at the weekend.
Match preview
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After the floodgates had opened against Derby County in the previous game, many people expected Middlesbrough to do the same versus opponents in Bristol City who have the third-worst defensive record in the division.
However, Boro succumbed to a surprise 2-1 defeat at Ashton Gate, a third away fixture without success which leaves Chris Wilder's side a point outside of the playoffs.
With games in hand on some of the clubs above them, Wilder will still back his players to end the campaign in the top six, but the setback is a wake-up call after several months of positivity since his arrival.
Since posting four successive shutouts in a row during December, Middlesbrough have now kept just one clean sheet in their last nine fixtures in all competitions.
Two of their next three league matches are at home, giving Boro a chance to get back on track, but they must handle the tag of clear favourites to see off a faltering West Brom side.
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Steve Bruce was supposed to instigate an upturn in results when he was brought in as Valerien Ismael's successor earlier this month.
However, the Baggies have collected just one point from games with Sheffield United, Blackburn Rovers and Luton Town, scoring no goals in the process.
The West Midlands outfit have now gone five fixtures without contributing in the final third, a drought which has led to the club dropping down to 11th position.
Although the situation is still salvageable while they remain just four points adrift of the top six, all momentum has been lost, and only a win against the odds is going to lift the storm clouds over The Hawthorns.
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Team News
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Duncan Watmore will likely return to the Middlesbrough attack for this contest, taking the place of either Aaron Connolly or Folarin Balogun.
Andraz Sporar may return to the squad if he overcomes illness, while Riley McGree could be given an opportunity from the start with Matt Crooks serving a ban.
Bruce must decide whether to stick with a back three, although that appears likely with Boro also opting for that strategy.
Grady Diangana and Callum Robinson are in line for recalls in the final third, potentially replacing Adam Reach and Karlan Grant in the Baggies XI.
Taylor Gardner-Hickman will also feel that he is in contention for a return in one of the wing-back positions.
Jake Livermore continues to serve a ban for his red card against Sheffield United.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Lumley; Dijksteel, Fry, McNair; Jones, McGree, Howson, Tavernier, Taylor; Watmore, Balogun
West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
Johnstone; Ajayi, Bartley, Clarke; Furlong, Molumby, Mowatt, Townsend; Robinson, Diangana; Carroll
We say: Middlesbrough 1-0 West Bromwich Albion
Everything points to this contest being a low-scoring affair. Bruce will hope that West Brom can finally end their drought since his arrival, but we feel that Boro will just about do enough to edge their way to victory by the narrowest of scorelines.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 43.29%. A win for West Bromwich Albion had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest West Bromwich Albion win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
