Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
43.85% ( -0.03) | 25.66% ( -0) | 30.49% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 53.76% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.93% ( 0.04) | 50.07% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.95% ( 0.03) | 72.04% ( -0.03) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.24% ( 0) | 22.76% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.56% ( 0) | 56.44% ( 0) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.6% ( 0.04) | 30.4% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.4% ( 0.05) | 66.6% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.74% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 2.14% Total : 43.85% | 1-1 @ 12.19% 0-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 8.24% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( 0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 30.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |