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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
Result | ||
Oxford United | Draw | Exeter City |
44.06% ( -0.06) | 25.13% ( 0.09) | 30.81% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 55.67% ( -0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.33% ( -0.41) | 47.67% ( 0.41) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.14% ( -0.38) | 69.86% ( 0.38) |
Oxford United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.36% ( -0.2) | 21.64% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.24% ( -0.31) | 54.76% ( 0.3) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.04% ( -0.23) | 28.97% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.15% ( -0.29) | 64.86% ( 0.29) |
Score Analysis |
Oxford United | Draw | Exeter City |
1-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.45% Total : 44.06% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.13% | 0-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.99% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.57% Total : 30.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |