Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 44.55%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.71%) and 1-2 (8.61%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
27.76% ( 0.02) | 27.69% ( 0.17) | 44.55% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 46.22% ( -0.45) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.94% ( -0.58) | 59.05% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.49% ( -0.45) | 79.51% ( 0.45) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.8% ( -0.31) | 37.2% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.01% ( -0.3) | 73.98% ( 0.3) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.6% ( -0.36) | 26.4% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.44% ( -0.48) | 61.56% ( 0.48) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.11% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.58% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.76% Total : 27.76% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.82% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 13.07% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 8.71% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.61% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) Other @ 2% Total : 44.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |