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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.16%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 1-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Go Ahead Eagles win it was 1-2 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
60.16% ( -1.6) | 20.64% ( 0.26) | 19.2% ( 1.33) |
Both teams to score 58.33% ( 1.65) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.68% ( 0.96) | 38.31% ( -0.97) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.4% ( 1.02) | 60.59% ( -1.02) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.61% ( -0.16) | 12.39% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.73% ( -0.32) | 38.26% ( 0.31) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.58% ( 1.99) | 33.41% ( -2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.96% ( 2.12) | 70.04% ( -2.13) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.03% ( -0.53) 1-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.46) 3-1 @ 6.89% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.41) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.23) 4-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.92% Total : 60.16% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.22% Total : 20.64% | 1-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.29) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.2% Total : 19.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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