Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.46%) and 1-2 (7.31%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (12.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
