Augsburg host Borussia Monchengladbach in the Bundesliga on Friday, with the visitors looking to gain a positive result in order to move back into the top half of the table.
The two sides drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture, with Augsburg equalising late on despite having been reduced to ten men earlier in the second half.
Match preview
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Augsburg suffered a disappointing defeat last weekend at the hands of Hertha Berlin, missing the opportunity to move 11 points clear of their opponents and the relegation zone in the process.
Things looked extremely optimistic for Heiko Herrlich's side after Laszlo Benes fired them into a second-minute lead with a superb first-time volley. Augsburg are very strong at holding onto leads, with their organised defence and threat in transition thriving in that situation.
However, Krzysztof Piatek levelled after the hour mark, before substitute Dodi Lukebakio stole the three points by converting from the penalty spot to provide Hertha with a two-point cushion above Arminia Bielefeld and the relegation zone.
While relegation looks an unlikely prospect for Augsburg, Herrlich will not consider his side to be out of the woods just yet given that they are only seven points ahead of Arminia, who have a game in hand against Werder Bremen this week. The 49-year-old will look to capitalise on Gladbach's recent poor run of form to potentially signal another season in the Bundesliga.
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Indeed, Gladbach have now taken only one point from their last five matches, having also been knocked out of the DFB-Pokal quarter-final by Borussia Dortmund and lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 knockout tie during that timeframe.
In short, it has been a disastrous period for the club, with the news that manager Marco Rose is set to depart for Dortmund in the summer clearly having a destabilising impact on results.
Die Fohlen were outplayed by Bayer Leverkusen, a side which they managed to narrowly finish above to qualify for the Champions League last season, last time out, with Peter Bosz's side enjoying 58% possession and 13 shots on their way to a 1-0 victory via Patrik Schick's 76th-minute winner.
With that defeat condemning Gladbach to falling into the bottom half, it is difficult to see where they go from here. Any aspirations of competing in Europe next season appear to be wholly unrealistic, while building for the future is also a very difficult enterprise with a manager who will not be a part of that remaining in charge until the end of the season.
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Team News
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Augsburg are likely to be without Iago, Alfred Finnbogason, Fredrik Jensen and Tim Civeja due to injury.
Herrlich may look to bring Ruben Vargas back into the starting XI to provide more attacking thrust.
Gladbach, meanwhile, will travel to Augsburg without Christoph Kramer after the midfielder sustained a ligament injury in the recent cup defeat to Dortmund.
Jonas Hofmann remains sidelined until the end of the month with a muscular issue, while Famana Quizera has a shoulder problem.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Pedersen; Strobl, Khedira; Caligiuri, Benes, Vargas; Niederlechner
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Zakaria, Neuhaus; Wolf, Plea, Thuram; Embolo
We say: Augsburg 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach
We can envisage a low-scoring draw between two sides playing without much confidence at the moment.
Both managers may be content to avoid defeat, with Augsburg moving a point further away from the bottom three and Gladbach jumping back into the top half.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 65.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.04%) and 0-1 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.32%), while for an Augsburg win it was 2-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
