Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 58.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for DC United had a probability of 18.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result | ||
New York City FC | Draw | DC United |
58.82% ( 0.04) | 22.59% ( 0) | 18.58% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 50.61% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52% ( -0.06) | 48% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.83% ( -0.05) | 70.17% ( 0.06) |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.02% ( -0.01) | 15.98% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.72% ( -0.02) | 45.28% ( 0.02) |
DC United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.24% ( -0.08) | 39.76% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.57% ( -0.07) | 76.43% ( 0.07) |
Score Analysis |
New York City FC | Draw | DC United |
1-0 @ 11.65% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.02% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.76% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.1% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.17% Total : 58.82% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.59% | 0-1 @ 5.86% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.14% Total : 18.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 34 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 26 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
6 | Toronto | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 23 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 19 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 18 |
11 | Orlando City | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 17 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 12 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 30 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 28 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Austin FCAustin | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 23 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Dallas | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |