Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.6%. A win for Metz had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
Result | ||
Metz | Draw | Lille |
26.53% ( 0.05) | 25.86% ( -0) | 47.6% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 50.57% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.98% ( 0.04) | 53.01% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.39% ( 0.03) | 74.61% ( -0.04) |
Metz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.06% ( 0.06) | 34.93% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.32% ( 0.07) | 71.67% ( -0.07) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.72% ( -0.01) | 22.27% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.27% ( -0.01) | 55.72% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Metz | Draw | Lille |
1-0 @ 8.18% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 26.53% | 1-1 @ 12.28% 0-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.85% | 0-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.23% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.62% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.74% 0-4 @ 1.65% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 47.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
11 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |