Pisa have scored in each of their last five meetings against Monza and have not lost during this run, while the latter have managed to keep four clean sheets in their last six home games.
A closely-fought contest is set to be played out at the Stadio Brianteo, and while Pisa have fared better in this fixture in recent years, we feel that Monza will do enough to claim at least a draw to keep the tie alive heading into Sunday's second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Pisa had a probability of 21.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Pisa win it was 0-1 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
