Though it ultimately finished 3-2 to Milan in October's reverse fixture - after Atalanta pulled two late goals back to give the scoreline a hint of respectability - this time around, the high stakes could make it a much tighter affair.
Indeed, even a single strike could decide the destiny of the points, and the sense of self-belief forged by recent comebacks can help the Rossoneri edge out La Dea and inch closer to the title.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
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