Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 70.43%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 11.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.41%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
70.43% | 18.16% | 11.41% |
Both teams to score 47.23% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.8% | 43.2% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.4% | 65.6% |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.96% | 11.04% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.64% | 35.36% |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.09% | 46.91% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.58% | 82.42% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
2-0 @ 12.57% 1-0 @ 11.41% 2-1 @ 9.52% 3-0 @ 9.24% 3-1 @ 6.99% 4-0 @ 5.09% 4-1 @ 3.85% 3-2 @ 2.65% 5-0 @ 2.24% 5-1 @ 1.7% 4-2 @ 1.46% Other @ 3.7% Total : 70.43% | 1-1 @ 8.64% 0-0 @ 5.18% 2-2 @ 3.6% Other @ 0.74% Total : 18.16% | 0-1 @ 3.92% 1-2 @ 3.27% 0-2 @ 1.48% 2-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.83% Total : 11.41% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |