Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 42.69%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Portimonense in this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Gil Vicente |
42.69% ( 0.28) | 25.41% ( -0.07) | 31.91% ( -0.21) |
Both teams to score 55.24% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.56% ( 0.26) | 48.44% ( -0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.43% ( 0.23) | 70.57% ( -0.23) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.39% ( 0.25) | 22.61% ( -0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.78% ( 0.36) | 56.22% ( -0.36) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.38% ( -0.01) | 28.62% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.58% ( -0.01) | 64.43% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Gil Vicente |
1-0 @ 9.62% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.21% Total : 42.69% | 1-1 @ 12.03% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.4% | 0-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.65% Total : 31.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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