Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 53.56%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
53.56% ( 1.33) | 21.98% ( 0.06) | 24.45% ( -1.39) |
Both teams to score 61.34% ( -1.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.14% ( -1.66) | 37.86% ( 1.66) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.88% ( -1.8) | 60.12% ( 1.79) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.77% ( -0.15) | 14.23% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.03% ( -0.29) | 41.97% ( 0.29) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.52% ( -1.94) | 28.48% ( 1.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.75% ( -2.5) | 64.25% ( 2.5) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.57) 2-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.52) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 5.01% ( 0.31) 3-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.18) 4-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.14) 4-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( -0) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.45% Total : 53.56% | 1-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.32) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.21) 0-1 @ 5.09% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.24) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.45% Total : 24.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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