Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Metz had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
Result | ||
Metz | Draw | Monaco |
31.67% ( -0.34) | 25.61% ( 0.06) | 42.72% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 54.46% ( -0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.59% ( -0.37) | 49.41% ( 0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.55% ( -0.34) | 71.45% ( 0.33) |
Metz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.74% ( -0.41) | 29.26% ( 0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.78% ( -0.51) | 65.22% ( 0.51) |
Monaco Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.99% ( -0.02) | 23.01% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.18% ( -0.04) | 56.82% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Metz | Draw | Monaco |
1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 5.08% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 2.08% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.51% Total : 31.67% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.73% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.6% | 0-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.27% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.56% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.61% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.11% Total : 42.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 57 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |