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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 34.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 0-1 (10.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Mansfield Town |
38.32% ( -1.92) | 27.54% ( 0.43) | 34.14% ( 1.49) |
Both teams to score 49.06% ( -0.99) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.38% ( -1.4) | 56.62% ( 1.4) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.41% ( -1.14) | 77.59% ( 1.14) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.35% ( -1.75) | 28.65% ( 1.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.53% ( -2.24) | 64.47% ( 2.24) |
Mansfield Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.76% ( 0.28) | 31.24% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.42% ( 0.33) | 67.58% ( -0.33) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Mansfield Town |
1-0 @ 11.18% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.3) 2-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.3) 3-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.29) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.14) Other @ 1.76% Total : 38.31% | 1-1 @ 13.01% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.53% | 0-1 @ 10.41% ( 0.62) 1-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.41) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.18) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.97% Total : 34.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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