Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 68.49%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Almeria |
68.49% ( -0.29) | 18.88% ( 0.11) | 12.62% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 48.67% ( 0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.65% ( -0.04) | 43.34% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.25% ( -0.04) | 65.74% ( 0.04) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.4% ( -0.09) | 11.59% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.43% ( -0.19) | 36.57% ( 0.19) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.05% ( 0.27) | 44.95% ( -0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.11% ( 0.21) | 80.89% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Almeria |
2-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 11.22% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.69% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0) Other @ 3.53% Total : 68.48% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.83% Total : 18.88% | 0-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.21% Total : 12.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 95 |
2 | Barcelona | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 85 |
3 | GironaGirona | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 81 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 76 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 68 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 57 |
8 | Villarreal | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 53 |
9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 49 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
11 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 45 |
12 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 43 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 41 |
14 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 |
17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 38 |
R | CadizCadiz | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 33 |
R | Almeria | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 21 |
R | Granada | 38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 21 |
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