La Liga | Gameweek 17
Jan 14, 2023 at 8pm UK
Reale Arena
Real Sociedad3 - 1Athletic Bilbao
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Almeria 0-2 Real Sociedad
Sunday, January 8 at 1pm in La Liga
Sunday, January 8 at 1pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 0-0 Osasuna
Monday, January 9 at 8pm in La Liga
Monday, January 9 at 8pm in La Liga
We said: Real Sociedad 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
The last two league meetings between these two sides at the home of Real Sociedad have finished level, and we are predicting another draw here. The hosts will enter the contest in excellent form, but Athletic are unbeaten in their last three Basque derbies in La Liga, and we can see a low-scoring draw here. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 36.49%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
36.49% ( 0.06) | 28.02% ( 0.03) | 35.49% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 47.72% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
