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Europa League
Rennes
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Feb 22, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Roazhon Park
Milan logo

Rennes
3 - 2
AC Milan

Bourigeaud (11', 54' pen., 68' pen.)
Gouiri (69')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Jovic (22'), Leao (58')
Florenzi (53'), Maignan (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Rennes and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rennes

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Rennes 3-1 Clermont
Sunday, February 18 at 2pm in Ligue 1

AC Milan

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Monza 4-2 AC Milan
Sunday, February 18 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: Rennes 2-1 AC Milan (AC Milan win 4-2 on aggregate)

 Having averaged over two goals per game this year, Milan are likely to score again - and that should put their place in the last 16 beyond doubt. Nonetheless, losing in Italy was the only defeat Rennes have suffered since December, so the hosts are capable of a consolation win on the night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.

Result
RennesDrawAC Milan
39.3% (0.088000000000001 0.09) 25.27% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 35.43% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Both teams to score 56.65% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.96% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)47.04% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.72% (0.009999999999998 0.01)69.28% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Rennes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.33% (0.049999999999997 0.05)23.67% (-0.044 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.22% (0.071000000000005 0.07)57.78% (-0.067 -0.07)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.21% (-0.043000000000006 -0.04)25.79% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.27% (-0.058 -0.06)60.73% (0.063000000000002 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Rennes 39.3%
    AC Milan 35.43%
    Draw 25.27%
RennesDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 8.8% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.59% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.34% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.13% (0.011 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.04% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.8% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.49% (0.006 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.1% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.01% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 39.3%
1-1 @ 11.92%
0-0 @ 6.1% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-2 @ 5.82%
3-3 @ 1.26%
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 25.27%
0-1 @ 8.27% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.08% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.61% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.65% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.63% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 2.53% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 35.43%

How you voted: Rennes vs AC Milan

Rennes
30.7%
Draw
19.0%
AC Milan
50.2%
205
Head to Head
Feb 15, 2024 8pm
Knockout Round Playoffs 1st Leg
AC Milan
3-0
Rennes
Loftus-Cheek (32', 47'), Leao (53')

Nagida (87')
> Preview
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