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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
76.54% ( -0.64) | 13.65% ( 0.44) | 9.81% ( 0.22) |
Both teams to score 59.38% ( -1.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.7% ( -1.65) | 25.3% ( 1.66) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.69% ( -2.18) | 45.31% ( 2.18) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.56% ( -0.44) | 5.44% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.73% ( -1.3) | 21.27% ( 1.31) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.79% ( -0.93) | 37.21% ( 0.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.01% ( -0.93) | 73.99% ( 0.94) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.46) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.21) 4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.17) 5-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.15) 6-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.11) 6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.16) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.83% Total : 76.54% | 1-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.27% Total : 13.65% | 1-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 2% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.61% Total : 9.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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