Zwolle have earned respectable draws with Ajax, Heerenveen and AZ in their last three matches, but there will be a real emphasis on the Blauwvingers to collect maximum points against the bottom side in this one.
Vitesse have lost seven of their nine away matches in the Eredivisie this term, and we are predicting that tally will increase to eight on Friday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 47.18%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 29.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.
0.88) 
-0.91) 
