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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 37.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.06%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Emmen win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
Result | ||
NEC | Draw | Emmen |
37.72% ( -0.24) | 24.84% ( 0.08) | 37.45% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 58.37% ( -0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.12% ( -0.37) | 44.88% ( 0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.76% ( -0.36) | 67.24% ( 0.36) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.47% ( -0.29) | 23.53% ( 0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.43% ( -0.43) | 57.58% ( 0.43) |
Emmen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.33% ( -0.08) | 23.67% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.22% ( -0.12) | 57.78% ( 0.12) |
Score Analysis |
NEC | Draw | Emmen |
2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.1% Total : 37.72% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.83% | 1-2 @ 8.37% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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