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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 17.96%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.01%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-0 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
Groningen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
17.96% ( -0.01) | 22.59% ( 0) | 59.45% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 49.5% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.1% ( -0) | 48.9% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.01% ( -0) | 70.99% ( 0) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.99% ( -0.01) | 41.01% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.44% ( -0.01) | 77.56% ( 0) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.92% ( 0) | 16.08% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.53% | 45.47% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Groningen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 5.88% ( -0) 2-1 @ 4.79% ( -0) 2-0 @ 2.62% 3-1 @ 1.42% 3-2 @ 1.3% Other @ 1.95% Total : 17.96% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0) Other @ 0.88% Total : 22.59% | 0-1 @ 12.05% 0-2 @ 11.01% 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.71% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.98% 0-4 @ 3.07% 1-4 @ 2.73% 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.22% 0-5 @ 1.12% 1-5 @ 1% Other @ 2.08% Total : 59.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |