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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 71.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 11.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 1-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
Result | ||
Feyenoord | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
71.27% ( -0.97) | 16.85% ( 0.43) | 11.88% ( 0.54) |
Both teams to score 53.66% ( 0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.34% ( -0.63) | 35.66% ( 0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.28% ( -0.7) | 57.72% ( 0.69) |
Feyenoord Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.16% ( -0.37) | 8.84% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.72% ( -0.91) | 30.28% ( 0.91) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.86% ( 0.47) | 41.14% ( -0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.32% ( 0.42) | 77.68% ( -0.42) |
Score Analysis |
Feyenoord | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-0 @ 10.7% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.15) 5-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 1.03% ( -0.08) 5-2 @ 1% ( -0.03) 6-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.76% Total : 71.27% | 1-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 16.85% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.45% Total : 11.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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