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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 59.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 20.23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 1-0 (7.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.19%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | FC Utrecht |
59.31% ( -1.19) | 20.46% ( 0.48) | 20.23% ( 0.72) |
Both teams to score 60.81% ( -0.49) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.1% ( -1.19) | 35.9% ( 1.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.01% ( -1.32) | 57.99% ( 1.32) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.12% ( -0.69) | 11.88% ( 0.69) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.82% ( -1.48) | 37.18% ( 1.48) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69% ( -0.02) | 31% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.7% ( -0.02) | 67.3% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | FC Utrecht |
2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.19) 4-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.16) 4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.13) 5-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.11) 5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.49% Total : 59.31% | 1-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.28% Total : 20.46% | 1-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.69% Total : 20.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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