CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Nov 18, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Independence Park
Jamaica1 - 2Canada
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Jamaica
Sunday, November 12 at 12am in International Friendlies
Sunday, November 12 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Japan 4-1 Canada
Friday, October 13 at 11.35am in International Friendlies
Friday, October 13 at 11.35am in International Friendlies
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Guatemala | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Cuba | 3 | -6 | 0 |
We said: Jamaica 1-1 Canada
The surfaces in Jamaica have been notoriously difficult to play on, which might be a break for both defensive units, who have each struggled. These are two evenly matched sides, each with attacking quality, but we expect to see more of a cagey affair, and given the two-leg format neither will want to expend too much energy, as the conditions in Jamaica may be relatively humid. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 37.65%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (11.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jamaica | Draw | Canada |
37.65% ( -0.27) | 28.38% ( 0.19) | 33.96% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 46.53% ( -0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
