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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
Result | ||
Cardiff City | Draw | Derby County |
43.21% | 27.55% | 29.23% |
Both teams to score 47.41% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.05% | 57.95% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.35% | 78.65% |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.42% | 26.58% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.2% | 61.79% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.57% | 35.43% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.81% | 72.19% |
Score Analysis |
Cardiff City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 12.47% 2-1 @ 8.58% 2-0 @ 8.27% 3-1 @ 3.79% 3-0 @ 3.65% 3-2 @ 1.97% 4-1 @ 1.26% 4-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.02% Total : 43.2% | 1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 9.42% 2-2 @ 4.45% Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.55% | 0-1 @ 9.77% 1-2 @ 6.72% 0-2 @ 5.07% 1-3 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 2.05% Total : 29.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
P | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 45 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 80 | 41 | 39 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 88 | 56 | 32 | 90 |
4 | Southampton | 45 | 25 | 9 | 11 | 85 | 62 | 23 | 84 |
5 | Norwich CityNorwich | 45 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 79 | 63 | 16 | 73 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 67 | 47 | 20 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 59 | 9 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 66 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 44 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 45 | 19 | 5 | 21 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 62 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 59 | 64 | -5 | 57 |
14 | Watford | 45 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 56 |
15 | Sunderland | 45 | 16 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Millwall | 45 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 56 |
17 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 53 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 53 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 50 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 45 | 14 | 8 | 23 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 50 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 45 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 48 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 47 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 45 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 48 | 75 | -27 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 45 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 87 | -55 | 24 |
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