Still fighting for their Serie A survival, 17th-placed Cagliari welcome Hellas Verona to Sardinia on Saturday afternoon in desperate need of points.
Following their late loss in a six-pointer with Genoa last week, the Rossoblu have been beaten in six of their last seven games; while Verona sit comfortably in mid-table and are seeking a top-half finish.
Match preview
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With only five fixtures remaining, last week's clash with 18th-placed Genoa - who then trailed Cagliari by six points in the scrap to avoid demotion - was a potentially defining moment in the Isolani's season.
Victory at Marassi, against opponents that had won only twice before all term, would see their worries of dropping down into Serie B diminished significantly - but it was not to work out that way for Walter Mazzarri's side.
Indeed, they ultimately fell to a 1-0 defeat, when Milan Badelj snatched an 89th-minute winner for Genoa in a tense affair of just three shots on target for both teams combined.
Only their surprise win over Sassuolo earlier this month has interrupted a worrying run of reverses for the Rossoblu, who have now taken just three points from the last possible 21 in Serie A.
Yet a glimmer of hope remains, as they still hover just above Salernitana and Genoa in the standings, and are yet to play both the former and doomed Venezia in the course of the final few weeks.
With that in mind, even a repeat of the goalless draw they managed to secure from November's reverse fixture in Verona would aid Mazzarri's men this weekend.
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The visitors arrive in Cagliari after salvaging a point from their last outing, where they could only follow up an admirable away victory over Atalanta with a 1-1 draw against struggling Sampdoria at Stadio Bentegodi.
Having gone behind to Serie A's 16th-placed side, Verona pulled level through Gianluca Caprari - scoring against his parent club - and that point keeps the Veneto outfit ensconced in the top half of the table by a margin of six points.
Suffering just two losses from their last nine Serie A fixtures - both of which were against teams then in contention for the Scudetto - Igor Tudor's side have added some consistency to their free-scoring exploits of earlier this year, and should surpass last year's finish of 10th.
Hellas have, though, generally been better on home soil this term, and with only four of 17 away games resulting in wins so far, they travel south with the aim of improving that modest record before their campaign concludes.
Between now and next month's close of play, the Gialloblu must tackle both title challengers Milan and a Lazio side seeking points for European return, so Saturday's assignment presents perhaps the best chance of improving their own tally.
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Team News
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Despite defeat last time out, Walter Mazzarri is not expected to make wholesale changes to his Cagliari starting XI, but brings former Verona defender Matteo Lovato back into the side upon his return from suspension.
Luca Ceppitelli is the man most likely to make way in the hosts' back three, while another potential rotation could come up front.
Underwhelming against Genoa on an increasingly rare start, Keita Balde's place alongside captain and leading scorer Joao Pedro is in doubt, with Leonardo Pavoletti and Gaston Pereiro both offering different options to Mazzarri depending on how he decides to approach the game.
Meanwhile, amid a fortuitous spell of good health in their squad, Verona should have almost every first-choice players available for Saturday's encounter.
Only defensive regular Pawel Dawidowicz and reserve goalkeeper Ivor Pandur are out of action for the Scaligeri, who may remain unchanged.
Sixteen-goal top scorer Giovanni Simeone will once again lead the line up front, aided by Czech playmaker Antonin Barak (10 goals) and Gianluca Caprari, who scored his 11th of the season last weekend.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Altare, Lovato, Carboni; Bellanova, Marin, Deiola, Grassi, Dalbert; Pedro, Balde
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Ceccherini, Gunter, Casale; Faraoni, Hongla, Ilic, Lazovic; Barak, Caprari; Simeone
We say: Cagliari 1-2 Hellas Verona
Having scored just three times in their last seven matches, it is clear where the fault for Cagliari's decline lies, and a misfiring front line could cost them again versus carefree Verona.
The visitors are playing merely for pride and places in the standings, and a relatively relaxed approach may make their fluent forward department all the more potent.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 2-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Hellas Verona in this match.
