Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 44.43%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
44.43% ( 0.04) | 23.75% ( -0.02) | 31.81% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 60.96% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.06% ( 0.06) | 40.94% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.67% ( 0.07) | 63.33% ( -0.07) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.29% ( 0.04) | 18.7% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.94% ( 0.07) | 50.06% ( -0.07) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.99% ( 0.02) | 25.01% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.32% ( 0.02) | 59.67% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
2-1 @ 9.11% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.57% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.09% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.67% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.46% Total : 44.43% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.74% | 1-2 @ 7.53% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.48% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.08% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.21% 2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0) Other @ 2.62% Total : 31.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
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