Neither PSG nor Toulouse need over-exert themselves in a match where only pride is on the line, but Enrique's men are still searching for the formula for defensive success at home, while Les Violets have made a habit of shining on the road of late.
Martinez's men are actually the second-best performing Ligue 1 team away from home in 2024 behind PSG, but Nicolaisen's ban is a significant blow, and on this occasion, we have faith in Les Parisiens to finally put some of their chances away en route to a recovery win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 67.55%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 14.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.04%) and 3-1 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
0.1) 
-0.05) 
