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Porto
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 27, 2020 at 8pm UK
Estádio Do Dragão
Olympiacos

Porto
2 - 0
Olympiacos

Vieira (11'), Oliveira (85')
Corona (61'), Uribe (82'), Manafa (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Fortounis (80')

Preview: Porto vs. Olympiacos - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Porto and Olympiacos, including team news and predicted lineups.

Porto will be looking to recover from their opening-day Champions League defeat to Manchester City when they welcome Greek Super League giants Olympiacos to the Estadio do Dragao for Tuesday's showdown.

In contrast, the visitors are aspiring to win their second European game on the bounce following their late 1-0 victory over Marseille last week.


Match preview

Porto manager Sergio Conceicao pictured in October 2020© Reuters

Given Porto's abysmal record on English soil, the Portuguese champions were never expected to take something away from their daunting trip to Manchester City, and the game panned out exactly as expected at the Etihad Stadium.

Sergio Conceicao's men did take the lead through Luis Diaz, but Pep Guardiola's men soon displayed their credentials with goals from Sergio Aguero, Ilkay Gundogan and Ferran Torres wrapping up a comfortable victory for the hosts in the opening round of fixtures.

That defeat in Manchester stretched Porto's winless run in all competitions to three matches following a loss to Maritimo and a draw with Sporting in the league, but Conceicao's men managed to get back on track with a narrow 1-0 victory over Gil Vicente, with Evanilson netting the winner for the 10 men of Porto on Saturday.

Despite succumbing to the better team on the night at the Etihad last Tuesday, the Porto faithful will still feel optimistic about their side's chances of advancing to the knockout stage, although they must now navigate a challenging test against an Olympiacos side who have had a full week's rest since overcoming Marseille in dramatic fashion.

Olympiacos coach Pedro Martins before the match on February 27, 2020© Reuters

Olympiacos and Marseille seemed destined to both walk away with a share of the spoils on the opening night, but as the Greek champions have done so often at home over the years, Pedro Martins's men dug deep and prevailed with a clean sheet after a gruelling 90 minutes of football.

Youssef El Arabi was unable to build on his hat-trick in the league against Atromitos as he made way for Ahmed Hassan - who headed in for the hosts just minutes after coming off the bench - with Mathieu Valbuena showing his former side what they were missing as he provided the cross for Thrylos's winner against Marseille.

Martins is yet to witness his side taste defeat in the 2020-21 campaign and Olympiacos have now prevailed in six of their eight matches this term, although the Greek giants have only managed to muster two points from their last two away matches, and Porto are certainly not a side to be taken lightly on their own turf.

Indeed, history between the two clubs suggests that the hosts will have the upper hand in this one; Porto have won two and drawn one of their matches with Olympiacos on familiar territory, but Thrylos have recorded a trio of victories against Porto in Piraeus.

Porto Champions League form: L
Porto form (all competitions): WWLDLW

Olympiacos Champions League form: W
Olympiacos form (all competitions): WWDDWW


Team News

Olympiacos' Ahmed Hassan celebrates scoring against Marseille in the Champions League on October 21, 2020© Reuters

Porto will continue to make do without the services of defender Ivan Marcano, who is recovering from a cruciate ligament rupture.

Conceicao is likely to revert to his four-man defence after lining up with three centre-backs against Gil Vicente, which is likely to see Zaidu Sanusi, who was given his marching orders at the weekend, shifted back out to the left-hand side.

Diaz was forced to miss Saturday's victory through injury and remains a doubt for this one, while Otavio's involvement is also uncertain with a muscular problem.

With regards to the visitors, midfielder Mady Camara tested positive for coronavirus prior to Olympiacos's game with Marseille, and the Guinea international is set to miss out again here.

Having had a full week off to recover from their late victory over Les Olympiens, Martins is unlikely to disrupt the harmony without good reason, although Hassan could start over El Arabi following his late winner last week.

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Mbemba, Pepe, Sanusi; Oliveira, Uribe, Vieira; Corona, Marega, Anderson

Olympiacos possible starting lineup:
Sa; Rafinha, Semedo, Ba, Cholevas; M'Vila, Bouchalakis; Randjelovic, Valbuena, Masouras; Hassan


SM words green background

We say: Porto 2-1 Olympiacos

These two sides have established themselves as the dominant forces in their respective leagues, and Tuesday's encounter is poised to be a hotly-contested battle. Porto do have a couple of injury concerns to deal with and have been looking a little shaky in the Primeira Liga, but the Dragons have never lost at home to Olympiacos and we expect that run to continue with a narrow victory on Tuesday night.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 48.71%. A win for Olympiacos had a probability of 28.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Olympiacos win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.


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