Tajikistan face Myanmar in the second round of World Cup qualification on Tuesday at the Nagai Stadium in Osaka, Japan.
Tajikistan are the favourites coming into this tie, but Myanmar are far from the group F whipping boys and could give them a run for their money.
Match preview
Currently third in Group F, Tajikistan have ten points to their name, having won three games and drawn one.
However, Tajikistan are not footballing powerhouses and lack the cutting edge of group leaders Japan, who are 11 points clear of second-place Kyrgyzstan.
Head coach Usmon Toshev has seen his side lose on three occasions during this qualification campaign, twice to Japan and once in a shock 4-3 result against Myanmar.
Toshev will hope his men can put that result in the back of their minds as they approach this fixture.
Since their shock win over Tajikistan, Myanmar beat Mongolia 1-0 and then went on to lose to Japan 10-0 and then lose to Kyrgyzstan 8-1.
After what had been a somewhat promising campaign for Myanmar, 18 goals conceded in two games has definitely dampened spirits in the nation.
Still, with six points to their name, Myanmar, who are not famed for their football heritage, have given qualification a good shot and have something to build on in the future.
It is unlikely Myanmar can pull off another coup against Tajikistan on Tuesday, but head coach Antoine Hey will certainly hope his side have what it takes to put together another good performance.
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Team News
Having been roundly beaten against Japan last time out, Tajikistan could shake things up in a bid to improve their chances on Tuesday.
Young forward Rustam Soirov could come into the side in order to add more guile in front of goal.
Having conceded 18 goals in their last two games, there is a good chance Myanmar may choose to tinker with their defence.
Yan Naing Oo will be unavailable for selection after he picked up a red card against Kyrgyzstan.
Tajikistan possible starting lineup:
Yatimov; Juraboev, Safarov, Hanonov, Ergashev; Dzhalilov, Panshanbe, Zoirov, Tursunov, Nazarov; Soirov
Myanmar possible starting lineup:
Naing; Moe Kyaw, Than Win, Bo Bo, Min Thu; Moe Aung, Phyo Wai, Maw Yar; Chan Aung, Htet Aung, Maung Lwin
We say: Tajikistan 3-0 Myanmar
It is clear to see that Myanmar have lost their momentum in recent games, and we think Tajikistan will win this one fairly comfortably.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 53.26%. A win for Myanmar had a probability of 24.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Myanmar win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.
